A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
